A Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Age , Family Characteristics , and Job Characteristics on Migration

This paper examines the utility of viewing migration in the context of careers and family life cycles by studying migration as a discretestate, continuous-time process. We find that the inverse relationship between age and migration is due almost completely to the effects of family life cycle and career variables, and further, that jobor location-specific resources, prestige, and wage deter migration. A Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Age, Family Characteristics, and Job Characteristics on Migration Research on migration has examined a number of economic and social determinants of migration. Though some of the empirical evidence is contradictory, researchers have been almost unanimous in their assertion that migration can be fruitfully studied as an event that occurs in the context of a career and family life cycle (Greenwood, 1975; Leslie and Richardson, 1961; Ritchey, 1976; Shaw, 1975). This view is supported by the one relationship that consistently emerges in migration research: the inverse relationship between age and geographic mobility. Research indicates that the most geographically mobile sectors of the U.S. population are in the age groups 25-29 (Miller, 1977) or 25-34 (Long, 1973). The incidence of geographic mobility declines steadily with each successive age group beyond these. This relationship is usually attributed to the association between age and unmeasured characteristics and aspects of the family life cycle and individual careers. However, no one has investigated migration explicitly in the context of the family life cycle and career, nor has anyone fully evaluated the extent to which the effects of age are explained by life cycle and career variables. Perhaps the major reasons for this are methodological. First, because of data limitations, few studies have considered age simultaneously with other classes of variables known to affect migration (Ritchey). Second, as Greenwood points out, many studies of migration are plagued by a "simultaneity bias," i.e., the use of postmigration factors to predict migration may distort our view